Find the Loss Before You Sign the Bid

The problem in one breath

Bids go out optimistic and come back losers. The tear-off ran two days long, the access was a nightmare nobody priced, the second layer nobody caught — and you find all of it after the contract's signed, when the only person who can eat the difference is you.

Why it happens

The person who builds the bid wants to win the job. That's not a flaw — that's his job. But it means he prices it hopeful: clean deck, easy access, one layer, no surprises. Nobody in the room is paid to say "hang on — where does this one bleed?" So the optimism rides straight into a signed contract, and the roof teaches you the hard way what the bid missed.

The play

Before any bid over a size you pick goes out the door, one person runs the pre-bid challenge — ten minutes whose only job is to find where this job loses money.

1. Pick which bids get challenged. Not every small repair — that's overkill. Set a dollar line (your call, not a rule) and every bid above it gets the ten-minute challenge before it leaves the office. Little jobs skip it; the ones big enough to hurt don't.
2. Name the challenger — and rotate the seat. One person's only job for those ten minutes is to poke holes: a foreman, the office manager, or you on somebody else's bid. Rotate the seat so nobody becomes the guy who always says no — this bid it's Danny poking holes, the next one it's you.
3. Walk the money-leak questions out loud. The challenger runs the list (below): is the tear-off underestimated? Did we walk the access or just guess it? Steep-slope and the second layer priced, or assumed away? What's the callback risk on this one? The point isn't to kill the bid — it's to drag the leak into the light while you can still price it in.
4. Fix it in the bid, or take it on with your eyes open. Every hole the challenger finds gets one of two answers before the bid goes out: we re-price it, or we know we're carrying that risk on purpose. What you don't do is meet it for the first time on the roof.
5. It sets who asks the hard questions and when — not what to charge. The challenge never tells you your markup or your cost per square — those are your numbers, and this play doesn't touch them. It only guarantees somebody asks the hard money questions before you're committed, instead of nobody asking until it's too late to matter.

Do this this week

On the next bid big enough to hurt if it goes wrong, before it leaves the office, hand it to one person and give them ten minutes with the money-leak questions below. Make them find one thing the bid assumed away. Re-price it or carry it on purpose — then send it.

The tool

No spreadsheet. The pre-bid money-leak questions — run them out loud on any bid over your line:

  PRE-BID CHALLENGE — 10 minutes, one person pokes holes

  [ ] Tear-off:  how many layers, and did we count them — or hope?
  [ ] Deck:      what if it's rotten under there? Any decking priced, or zero?
  [ ] Access:    did we walk it? Steep lot? Tight yard? Nowhere for the dumpster?
  [ ] Pitch:     steep-slope work priced, or bid like a walkable roof?
  [ ] The extras: chimney, skylights, valleys, ventilation — all in?
  [ ] Material:  is the price we bid this at still good on the day we roll?
  [ ] Haul-off:  dump fees at today's rate, and how many loads — counted or guessed?
  [ ] Paper:     permit and inspection fees in the number?
  [ ] Callback:  is this a customer or a detail that'll drag us back for free?
  [ ] Margin:    what are we actually bidding to on this one?

  Every risk we find → re-price it, or carry it on purpose.   Never meet it first on the roof.

If your crew is 1099

Nothing to adjust — this is your internal bid review, before any contract is signed. If a sub foreman sits in to challenge the number, that's him consulting on the bid, not you directing his crew — it stays a conversation about the job, not a boss running his men.

One more thing: this play is how we run a shop — it's not legal advice. Rules change by state and by contract, so before you act on the legal-sounding parts, run them past your own attorney or accountant. It's your business, and what you do with any of this is your call and your responsibility.