Fill the Tank in Summer So Winter Doesn't Break You

On the list of fires: “the winter reserve”

Module 6 · The Money System · Play 11 of 22

The problem in one breath

Roofing money comes in waves — you're slammed and flush all summer, then the phone goes quiet and the account drains through the slow months. Every year the busy season feels like it'll last, and every year the dead stretch catches you thin, scrambling to make payroll on jobs you don't have.

Why it happens

When the work is stacked and cash lands every week, it feels like the money will always be there. It won't. Your overhead — truck payments, insurance, rent, the office manager, your own draw — runs twelve months a year whether roofs sell or not. Plenty of markets slow before Thanksgiving and stay quiet through about March — yours has its own shape. But every market has a dead stretch, and busy-season you never plans for it, because busy-season you can't picture being broke.

The play

You set money aside on purpose during the fat months so the lean ones are already paid for — before they arrive, not once they've got you by the throat.

Nail down your monthly nut. Add up what it costs to keep the doors open for one month with zero new sales: payroll, your draw, trucks, insurance, rent, phones, software, loan payments. That number is your overhead. Know it cold — it's the whole foundation of the reserve.
Map your slow season from last year, not a guess. Pull last year's deposits month by month. Where does the money fall off a cliff, and when does it come back? That's your dead stretch — yours might be two months or five. Count them.
Set the target: cover what the slow months don't. A dead stretch isn't zero — repairs, insurance work, a commercial job that doesn't care about weather still land something. Pull that number off the same deposits. Then it's your nut minus what a slow month still collects, times the slow months you counted. That's what full looks like: enough to carry payroll and overhead through the quiet, on top of whatever work does come in. Not a percentage somebody told you, not a round number that sounds safe.
Open a separate account and keep it out of reach. A second business account the debit card can't touch. What's in there isn't spending money — it's next winter's payroll, already handled. If you can see it in your main balance, you'll spend it.
Skim every busy-season job into it, automatically. Take a slice off the top of every job and move it the same day the deposit or final check clears — before it feels like income. The size is your call, keyed to your target and the fat months left. What matters: it happens every job, on autopilot, not "whatever's left over" — because there's never anything left over.
Fill it, then leave it. Once you hit the target, stop skimming and let it sit. Come the slow months, you draw payroll and overhead from it on purpose — with the crews working jobs you banked for those weeks (Module 14, Play 6) — and refill it next summer.

Do this this week

Figure out one number: your monthly nut. Spend twenty minutes adding up every dollar it takes to run one month with no new sales. That single number is the whole plan. Write it where you'll see it, then next week count your slow months against it.

The tool

Get the sheet

Or fill it in here — no download →

Opens in Excel, Google Sheets, Numbers or LibreOffice. Grab it on the phone now — it’ll be waiting on the computer at the shop.

the-winter-reserve-calculator.xlsx — the winter reserve calculator, the play's arithmetic done for you. Type your overhead lines — rent, trucks, insurance, the payroll you carry, your draw, phones, loans — and it adds them into your monthly nut. Set how many slow months you counted and what a slow month still collects, and it sets your reserve target: the part of the nut those months won't cover, times the slow months. Enter what you've saved so far and it shows the gap left to fill, then sizes the skim two ways — the cut per job to close the gap before winter, or, if you set your own cut, how many jobs it takes. Two columns run side by side: an EXAMPLE with made-up numbers, and a YOURS where you type the yellow cells and the sheet fills the gray. A full tank is what keeps you out of the daily cash war room (Module 6, "When Payroll's on the Line, Meet on Cash Every Day"). See the sheet notes below.

If your crew is 1099

Your reserve size hinges on how much fixed payroll you carry through the dead months. If your crews are 1099 subs, you're not paying them when there's no work — so the winter payroll you must cover is mostly your own W2 people and yourself, and your target is smaller than an all-W2 shop's. If your crews are W2, you either carry their pay through the slow stretch or you lay off and lose them before spring — which makes the reserve bigger. Size it to the payroll you'll actually owe when the phone's quiet.

M6-11 · Fill the Tank in Summer So Winter Doesn't Break You — Roofer MBA, https://roofermba.com/plays/money-system/save-in-summer

The sheet notes

How the sheet works — the columns and the formulas

The columns, the formulas behind them, and the judgment calls — so you can rebuild it by hand if you ever need to.

What it does

Turns the play's by-hand arithmetic into one sheet. You add up your overhead lines to get your monthly nut, count your slow months and say what a slow month still collects, and the sheet sets your reserve target — the part of the nut that winter work won't cover, times the slow months. Enter what you've saved so far and it shows the gap still to save, then two ways to size the skim off each job: the skim per job needed to close the gap by winter, or — if you'd rather set the cut yourself — how many jobs it takes at a skim size you pick. Two columns run side by side: EXAMPLE (made-up numbers, so you can see the math) and YOURS (the yellow cells you type into; the sheet fills the gray ones). Nothing here is a target handed to you — it's your own overhead against your own dead stretch.

How to use it

Fill the monthly nut (Section 1). Type each overhead line into the yellow YOURS cells — rent, trucks, insurance, the payroll you carry, your draw, phones/software, loan payments, whatever else. The MONTHLY NUT row adds them up.
Count your slow months, then net out what still comes in (Section 2). Pull last year's deposits and count the months the money fell off. Type that number, then type what a slow month still collected — repairs, insurance work, commercial. The sheet subtracts that from the nut and multiplies by your slow months to set the RESERVE TARGET. Leave that cell blank and the sheet assumes zero — the worst case, and a target bigger than you probably need.
Enter what you've banked (Section 3). Put the balance of your separate reserve account in Saved so far. The STILL TO SAVE row shows the gap; the status line reads FULL once you hit the target.
Size the skim (Section 4). Type how many jobs you'll finish before winter — the sheet divides the gap across them for a skim per job. Or set your own skim and read how many jobs it takes to fill the tank. Move the cut the day each deposit or final check clears.

Layout

Section	Rows	What it holds
1 Monthly nut	6–15	Eight overhead lines + "Other," summed into the MONTHLY NUT.
2 Reserve target	18–20	Slow-month count and what a slow month still collects (you set both) → RESERVE TARGET = (nut − slow-month collections) × slow months.
3 How full is the tank	23–25	Saved so far (you set) → STILL TO SAVE (the gap) + a FULL/keep-skimming status.
4 What to skim	28–32	Jobs before winter → skim per job; or your skim → jobs to get there.

Two value columns: B = EXAMPLE (cream, made-up numbers), C = YOURS (yellow = you type, gray = the sheet computes).

Formulas (so you can rebuild it by hand)

Monthly nut (B15 / C15): =SUM(B6:B14) — add every overhead line.
Reserve target (B20 / C20): =IF(B15-B19<=0,0,(B15-B19)*B18) — (nut − what a slow month still collects) × slow months, and never below zero.
Still to save / the gap (B24 / C24): =IF(B23>=B20,0,B20-B23) — target minus saved, never below zero.
Tank status (B25 / C25): =IF(B20<=0,"",IF(B24<=0,"FULL — stop skimming, leave it","Keep skimming")) — blank until a target exists, then FULL once the gap closes.
Skim per job (B29 / C29): =IF(B28="","",IF(B24<=0,0,B24/B28)) — gap ÷ jobs left before winter.
Jobs to get there (B32 / C32): =IF(B31="","",IF(B24<=0,0,ROUNDUP(B24/B31,0))) — gap ÷ your skim, rounded up to whole jobs (you can't skim from half a job).

Only IF, SUM, and ROUNDUP plus plain arithmetic are used — no new-Excel-only functions — so it opens and computes in old Excel, Numbers, and LibreOffice. (Verified: opened and recalculated in LibreOffice — nut $37,000 less $12,000 still collected, times 5 slow months = a $125,000 target; $60,000 banked leaves a $65,000 gap; $2,600/job across 25 jobs, or 13 jobs at a $5,000 skim.)

Notes / judgment calls

The example numbers are illustrative, not a target. The EXAMPLE column is a made-up shop — a $37k nut, $12k still collected in a slow month, five slow months, $60k already banked. Nobody's telling you $125k is your number; your number is your overhead against your dead stretch. Type your own into the YOURS column.
A slow month is never really zero. Repairs, insurance work, a commercial job that doesn't care about weather — that money lands whether or not you sold a re-roof, and it pays part of the nut. Netting it out is the difference between a reserve you can actually fill and a fantasy number. Be honest and be conservative: put in what a bad slow month collects, not a good one.
Payroll is the line that moves the reserve most. Enter only the pay you actually carry when the phone's quiet. If your crews are 1099 subs you're not paying them with no work, so that line is smaller and your target is smaller. If they're W2 and you keep them through winter, it's bigger — and this reserve is what makes keeping them possible.
Two ways to size the skim, same gap. Set the jobs and read the cut per job, or set the cut and read the jobs — whichever you think in. Both just split the gap. In the EXAMPLE, 25 jobs works out to $2,600 a job; set your own cut at $5,000 and it only takes 13. The rule that matters is the play's: it comes off every job automatically, not "whatever's left over."
FULL means stop. Once the status reads FULL, quit skimming and let it sit — that money is next winter's payroll. Draw from it through the slow months on purpose, then refill next summer.
The sheet ships with the numbers already saved in it, so a phone preview shows real figures; they recalculate as soon as you type in it.

The one thing

Do this this week

Take it with you

Get the sheet

One email unlocks this and every other sheet and card on the site. The plays stay free.

Same fire

Winter's coming and cash is thin

M6-11the winter reserve — you’re here
M6-05the cash war room
M6-12supplier terms

All the fires →

Fixed this?

A cash cushion only holds if the jobs underneath it are priced to a profit.

The fire right behind it is usually Jobs sell but the profit isn't there.